SpaceX is the board’s biggest test of risk appetite.
Takeaways
The New York Open discusses the possibility of peace, not the certainty of peace. Falling oil is doing the heavy lifting for stocks and bonds, but the market still needs signatures, open shipping lanes and evidence that Hormuz flows are normalizing.
SpaceX is the board’s biggest test of risk appetite. A $75 billion IPO can happen on day one, but the bigger question is whether the market can absorb a record supply of equity without draining support from the rest of the gang.
AI remains the engine of the market, but trading is becoming more and more complicated. Leverage for chips in Asia is limited, Oracle has reminded investors that the investments are real and competition from cheaper models is transforming AI from a pure growth story to one of margin and funding.
Cleaner business isn’t about chasing away all green screens. Respect the relief rally, but remember that this tape still contains three live wires: geopolitics, equity supply, and AI funding pressure.
SpaceX tests the market’s paper appetite
The New York Open arrives with the market back in relief mode, but not quite in full victory lap mode. U.S. futures are higher, global stocks capture a rise, slump and trend lower as traders weigh the possibility that the United States and Iran are moving toward a tentative deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and cut the war bounty most sharply. The key point is that the gang is not yet exchanging peace as a signed contract. It’s about trading peace as an increase in probability. That’s enough to push stocks higher, support bonds and push crude lower, but not enough to completely remove the geopolitical risk premium.
According to New York’s morning setup, they were up about 0.21% at the time of writing after the index jumped 1.8% in the previous session.
Mag 7 Complex was higher overall in pre-market trading, led by and , while , , and were all in the green. Treasury bonds maintained their rise from Thursday, around 4.46%, while the dollar index slipped towards 99.64. Oil was the main pressure point, falling towards $83.81…
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