US Forces Press Iran Campaign as Brent Nears $92 and Tanker Traffic Keeps Falling

Military escalation hits infrastructure

Brent crude oil soared as high as $92 a barrel on Tuesday as intense fighting between U.S. forces and Iran entered its tenth day. Global benchmark Brent briefly rose to a high of $91.63 a barrel before falling back to $91.26 by 5 p.m. EST.

The rise extended across all energy markets, with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate rising 2.3% to $84.38 a barrel. WTI has surged more than 20% since hostilities resumed, fueling inflation fears and dampening expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year.

THE sharp rise in crude oil comes as clashes around the strategic Strait of Hormuz intensify, overshadowing reports that Washington may back a proposed 10-day ceasefire. In addition to hitting military installations, U.S. warplanes and naval destroyers have reportedly targeted key civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power generation facilities. In response, Iranian forces retaliated against the energy and civil infrastructure of neighboring Persian Gulf states.

Maritime trade in the strait – a vital chokepoint for global energy supplies – remains severely disrupted following direct strikes on oil tankers and commercial cargo ships. Growing security risks have already begun to disrupt physical trade flows, with Indian state refiners including Indian Oil and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals suspending their crude shipments from Iraq.

Despite assurances from the US military that the southern corridor of the The Strait of Hormuz remains opencommercial shipping traffic passing through the choke point has plummeted. Maritime intelligence data reveals that the U.S. naval escort corridor has been all but abandoned, with ship operators largely rerouting traffic to Iran’s northern passage.

Overall, weekly transits plunged nearly 50%, from 248 ships for the week ending July 12 to 127 for the week ending July 19. While daily tanker traffic remains well below the pre-conflict baseline of 125 transits per day, market analysts warn that the risk of acute shortages in global oil supplies – and severe price volatility – is increasing.

Goldman Sachs Group would have estimates that crude shipments from the Persian Gulf have collapsed to less than 45% of pre-war levels. While the bank’s baseline forecast assumes an eventual de-escalation that would bring Brent back to an average of $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter, commodities analysts warned in a research note that continued shipping restrictions could push Brent past $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter and to an average of $100 a barrel through next year.

The bank stressed that alternative onshore pipelines and Red Sea bypass routes do not have sufficient capacity to absorb the huge supply gap, depleting physical market reserves and driving up premiums for rapid delivery of crude.