Key takeaways
- Galaxy Research has reduced its estimate for passage of the CLARITY Act from 50% to 30% as negotiations in the Senate face new hurdles.
- The 616-page bill combines crypto market structure rules with ethics, enforcement, custody and stablecoin provisions.
- Supporters face a difficult vote calculation as lawmakers seek the 60 votes needed to overcome a Senate filibuster.
Galaxy Research lowers CLARITY Act outlook after final Senate text
Galaxy Research lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act to take effect in 2026 to 30% after the Senate released combined legislation, increasing pressure on lawmakers to resolve disputes before the August recess.
The revised outlook came from Alex Thorn, head of enterprise-wide research at Galaxy Research, after lawmakers released the 616-page billwhich combines proposals from the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Senate Banking Committee with new provisions covering ethics, enforcement, stablecoins and custody rules.
Thorn before estimated the bill had a 50% chance of becoming law after the committee’s progress, but the company reduced its outlook as negotiations became more difficult and the Senate schedule tightened. Galaxy Research previously lowered the CLARITY Act’s odds to 50% as lawmakers faces growing pressure to complete legislation.
The head of research detailed in a July 24 article on X:
“We are reducing our estimate of the probability that CLARITY will become law in 2026 to 30%.”
Senate voting math creates challenge for bipartisan support
The CLARITY Act contains 104 numbered sections divided into four divisions and preserves several industry priorities, including developer protections, self-custody safeguards, and rules for digital asset intermediaries. The bill also creates new enforcement tools targeting crypto-related fraud, including senior citizen scams and “pig butchery” operations, while establishing requirements for qualified digital asset custodians.
Thorn highlighted the challenge facing supporters:
“The bill may not even have a clear majority from one party, much less the 60 votes required to overcome a filibuster. »
The vote count has become the central challenge for advocates, with lawmakers needing bipartisan support to advance the bill through the Senate.
Ethical provisions become a major point of disagreement
The latest CLARITY bill introduced a new ethics division prohibiting certain high-ranking officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office.
The proposal establishes disclosure requirements and assigns enforcement authority to the Department of Justice (DOJ). The provision has drawn criticism from lawmakers who want stronger safeguards against conflicts of interest and financial crime.
Democratic lawmakers involved in the negotiations have pushed for stronger ethics rules, consumer protections, safeguards against illicit financing and market integrity provisions. Seven Democrats, including Senators Mark Warner, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper and Raphael Warnock, said the current text was insufficient. US Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) criticized the plan, calling for stricter measures to prevent financial crime.
The dispute has added another challenge for negotiators trying to build support for the bill before the Senate recess in August.
Crypto Industry Eyes Legislative Window
The CLARITY Act would establish federal rules for digital asset classification, exchange oversight, custody requirements, and regulatory responsibilities between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The framework has attracted the attention of crypto companies and investors seeking clearer rules for operating in the United States.
As the Senate approaches its August recess, the remaining legislative window has become a key factor in the bill’s prospects. Crypto companies and voters continue to monitor whether lawmakers can resolve disagreements and move legislation forward. before election year priorities reshape the congressional calendar.
The debate follows a longer effort to create federal rules for the crypto market, with lawmakers previously struggling to finalize a framework. The last round of negotiations maintained the CLARITY Act’s future uncertain as supporters work to overcome political divisions.
Ethics provisions remain a major point of contention, with lawmakers debating government accountability, oversight standards and protections against financial crime. Democratic lawmakers slammed the CLARITY bill after expressing concerns on the guarantees of the proposal.
