Bitcoin Could Rally if Fed Keeps Rates Steady, Grayscale Says

Fed Policy Expectations Drive Market Divergences

Grayscale Investments is tied bitcoinlags behind stocks in the face of a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy, arguing that bitcoin could narrow the performance gap with stocks if the Fed suspends its rate hikes. In a research note dated June 22, the crypto The asset manager said changing rate expectations contributed to the divergence between stocks, bitcoinAnd gold.

US stocks have gained 9% since the start of the Iran war in late February, supported in part by sustained spending on infrastructure and the development of artificial intelligence, Grayscale detailed. Over the same period, bitcoin fell 1%, while gold fell 20%, creating one of the widest performance gaps among major macroeconomic assets.

Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale Investments, said:

“Our base case scenario is that the Fed suspends rate hikes. If we are correct, bitcoinThe price of could catch up with the shares.

Investor expectations regarding monetary policy have shifted towards tighter conditions. The Fed’s one-year rate expectations have increased by about 60 basis points since late February, and about half of Federal Reserve officials now indicate that rate hikes could be warranted in 2026.

The Federal Free Market Committee vote 12-0 on June 17 to keep the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75% in Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as Fed chairman. The Fed said inflation remained above its 2% target, with energy prices contributing to inflation pressure. The next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, 2026.

Central banks outside the United States have already started to tighten their measures. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already raised interest rates, reinforcing the broader shift toward tighter monetary policy as officials respond to continued pressure. inflation pressures with higher borrowing costs.

Grayscale channels Bitcoin as exposure to both monetary assets and growth

Interest rate expectations are of particular importance for assets that do not generate income. As real yields rise, investors can earn higher returns through cash and fixed income instruments, increasing the opportunity cost of holding alternatives such as bitcoin And gold.

Grayscale argued that bitcoin occupies a different position from traditional monetary assets. The company described the asset as a rare digital asset that can function as a long-term store of value while also providing exposure to public sector growth. blockchain networks and more broadly crypto ecosystem.

Pandl noted:

“This makes bitcoinThe function of is similar, but not exactly the same, as that of gold and growth stocks in portfolios. If applicable, bitcoin can act as a portfolio diversifier which, at current levels, appears to be attractively priced.

This framework places bitcoin between two investment categories that react differently to macroeconomic developments. Gold is generally traded as a currency hedge. Growth stocks benefit from technology investments and expectations for future earnings. Current prices reflect these influences. Grayscale indicates recent weakness in bitcoin And gold aligns with evolving rate expectations. Stocks were supported by AI-related investments.