Bitcoins (BTC) recent price weakness has reignited investor fears of a deeper downturn, but several market analysts say a prolonged correction could be more constructive in the long term.
Key points to remember:
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Analysts say the downside risk for Bitcoin is between $65,000 and $75,000.
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A potential three-day bullish divergence is forming, a setup that could align with a local bottom once momentum stabilizes.
Supply Rotation and Oversold Conditions Define Current BTC Price Action
Crypto trader Jackis said that the current move corresponds to a macroeconomic range for 2025, noting that even a drop to $70,000 would not resemble previous bear markets. Unlike 2022 or early 2024, the current drawdown lacks systemic macro-driven risk aversion pressure, instead reflecting a rotation of supply from early holders to institutional participants.
Meanwhile, market analyst Jelle highlighted a potential bullish divergence forming on Bitcoin’s three-day chart. Divergences over the previous three days in this cycle coincided with local lows, although the trader said confirmation would require more time and consolidation.
Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, reinforced this view by highlighting Bitcoin’s historical behavior following oversold RSI readings below 30.
According to the data, Bitcoin tends to follow a well-defined recovery path once such conditions appear. While short-term volatility remains likely, Bittel argued that bases often take time to form and are typically accompanied by choppy price action before a sustained uptrend resumes.
Bittel claims that the traditional four-year halving cycle is no longer the dominant driver of Bitcoin price behavior. On the contrary, lengthening debt refinancing cycles and changing liquidity dynamics suggest that the current market structure could persist until 2026.
Related: Bitcoin Price at ‘Critical’ Point as Whale Moves $348M worth of BTC to Exchanges
Longer Bitcoin Cycles Favor Flatter But Higher Returns
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, put the current phase within a larger wave structure extending from 2022 to 2025. This period has already generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 105% over 145 weeks, closely tracking long-term regression models.
Although Timmer acknowledged that Bitcoin could still see a deeper correction into the $65,000-$75,000 range in 2026, he emphasized that these areas have acted as strong buying zones.
Longer term, Timmer expects future cycles to evolve with flatter slopes as adoption matures. Nonetheless, price modeling suggests a potential trajectory toward $300,000 by 2029 if a new expansion phase emerges.
In this context, the corrective phases could serve as a basis for Bitcoin’s next structural advance.
Related: Has Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Broken and Is the Bull Market Really Over?
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision. Although we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on such information.
