This is an important week for US economic data, which could push long-term rates towards 5%, especially if the data is better than expected. On Tuesday at 10:00 we will receive the report and data from ISM services. JOLTS is expected to post a flat figure of 7.745 million compared to last month’s 7.744 million, essentially unchanged. , however, is expected to improve to 53.5 from 52.1, with the Prices Paid Index likely to fall to 57.1 from 58.2.
On Wednesday, we will see the change in employment, forecast at 133,000 jobs compared to 146,000 last month. will also occur earlier due to the market closing on January 9 in connection with the death of former President Jimmy Carter. Notably, last week’s continuing claims were revised downward, consistent with prior trends.
Wednesday afternoon is the FOMC minutes. I expect these minutes to reinforce the message that rate cuts will be increasingly difficult given the resilience of the labor market and the recent re-acceleration of inflation. December’s is expected to show a 0.4% month-over-month increase, while January follows a 0.3% increase, according to CPI swaps. These numbers do not reflect a trajectory toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
Friday will be a key day with the publication of non-agricultural payrolls. Current estimates suggest 160,000 jobs were created in December, up from 227,000 in November, but analysts often underestimate these numbers. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.2%. Anecdotal evidence, like the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey, suggests the job market remains robust. The average hourly wage is expected to increase by 0.3% month over month. Year on year, growth is stable at 4%.
If the data broadly matches expectations, it could increase and .
German rates soar
In the United States, rates are increasing, but globally, rates are also increasing. yields rose seven basis points on Friday, from 2.05% in early December to 2.43%. The market expects fewer rate cuts from the ECB, thus supporting the rise in yields.
10 years of break…
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