16 Mins Ago
Investor sentiment is at its limit, Bespoke says
Investor sentiment is at its limit, and that could mean weaker returns from here, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
A review of the bull-bear spread from the Investors Intelligence and American Association of Individual Investors shows that bullish sentiment is stretched to relatively extreme levels, read a Thursday note from the firm. Investors Intelligence showed the bull-bear spread is roughly in the 99th percentile, according to data going back to 1997. AAII data showed the bull-bear spread is roughly in the 85th percentile. Together, they average out to the 96th percentile.
Historically, the high reading means lackluster returns from here. Over the next week, stocks typically fall just slightly, Bespoke said. Over the next three months, they average just a 100 basis point, or 1 percentage point, gain. Over the next year, equities average a 296 basis point, or greater than 2 percentage point, advance.
“The current reading in the 10th decile (highest spread) leads to the worst average returns,” read the note.
— Sarah Min
54 Mins Ago
Stocks open Friday in the green
55 Mins Ago
U.S. oil touches $87, on pace for weekly gain as Israel closes embassies over Iran threats
Oil prices are on pace for a weekly gain as tensions boil in the Middle East with Israel closing embassies over threats from Iran.
The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery rose 39 cents to $86.98 a barrel, while the Brent June contract gained 55 cents to $91.20 a barrel. U.S. crude is up 4.5% for the week while the global benchmark has added 4.2%.
Israel has closed 28 embassies around the world amid fears of retaliatory strikes from Iran, according to multiple reports in Israeli media. Iran has blamed Israel for a missile strike on its consulate in Damascus which killed a top Iranian general. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike.
Tamas Varga, analyst with oil broker PVM, said the geopolitical temperature has climbed to levels not seen since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israeli civilians.
— Spencer Kimball
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