The stocks were flat yesterday before today’s report. Forecasts require an increase of 0.3% of the IPC to the heart and by the title, with gains from one year to the other of 2.9% for the headlines and 3.1% for the nucleus. Unlike last month, there was no revision of the last minute increase.
Swaps CPI
The expiration date uses 3-MO. Gap
The exchanges of January remained relatively stable, exchanging approximately 2.93%, which is not enough to complete the title number at 3%, but is a closer call than earlier this week. However, the ascending momentum of the market could indicate that the IPC report may be warmer than expected analysts.
Kalshi is a price in the central ICC, 3.2% in year.
What is clear, however, is that fears of accelerating inflation increase. The CPI exchange at 2 years has climbed around 2.7% today, marking a new local summit. If the data of tomorrow is favorable, the swap could be on the right track at around 2.85%, the next area of resistance.
The same goes for the 5 -year -old inflation exchange, which has increased to a new local assembly. It seems unusual for the exchange market to push the expectations of inflation higher before the IPC report, unless the market fears that a number is warmer.
We also saw the increase yesterday, exceeding a downward trend and successfully holding support for 4.4% for the moment.
December 2025 Fed Fund Futures is negotiated at 3.99% and seem ready to increase with the ascending triangle. Again, dependent data.
These are lateral negotiations in large ranges since mid-December. We are at a point where something is likely to change. The volume levels have also decreased considerably, and historically, when the volume returns, it is generally because the sellers return.
If the IPC report is unfavorable and indicates that the Fed has made reduction rates as the expectations of inflation increase, I think the decline would be reduced. Given the current assessments, an additional fund would probably be too much for actions. The pattern in the least suggests the yield stops more.
Terms and definitions by Chatgpt
1 and 1 Exchange market (inflation exchanges) – A derivative market where participants exchange fixed payments …
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