Norwegian officials have reportedly opened an investigation into prediction platforms’ bets on 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, calling them potential espionage.
According to a Bloomberg report published Monday, the Norwegian Nobel Institute, the entity that assists the Nobel Committee in selecting the Peace Prize winner, has started investigate reports that betting on prediction platform Polymarket increased in the hours leading up to Machado’s winner being announced.
Authorities are reportedly still investigating whether someone “managed to steal information and make a lot of money from it,” according to the institute’s director, Kristian Berg Harpviken.
Polymarket data showed a user under the name “dirtycup” won over $30,000 after betting around $70,000 on Machado. Bloomberg reported that three accounts that had primarily placed similar bets enjoyed a combined profit of around $90,000.
Machado received the peace prize for promoting democracy in Venezuela through her work as a human rights activist. In 2024, she praised Bitcoin (BTC) as a “lifeline” during hyperinflation in the country, as some residents used it “to protect their wealth and finance their flight.”
Related: MetaMask to allow users to bet on politics and sports via Polymarket
Polymarket, launched in 2020, has become a platform for many crypto users to bet on the outcomes of a variety of issues, from the Nobel Prize to best-selling music albums. Last week, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), invested 2 billion dollars at Polymarket before an announced launch in the United States.
Targeted in the media and by American regulators
Prediction markets have recently been attacked by the animated series South Park, which made fun of the platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as well as the American regulators responsible for overseeing them. Perhaps unironically, some of the predictions do from the show ended up being listed on Polymarket.
In September, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a no-action letter for two Polymarket entities. This decision allows the platform to offer event contracts without communicating the data generally required by American regulations, without the threat of enforcement.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said the CFTC’s action gave Polymarket “the green light to begin operating in the United States.” Coplan would have reached billionaire status last week after the ICE investments.
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