Actor Michael B. Jordan has overtaken Timothée Chalamet on prediction market platform Polymarket as most likely to win “Best Actor” at the 2026 Oscars, with his odds having increased more than 4-fold since March 1.
Last week, the “Sinners” star won the Best Actor award at the Actor Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards, or SAG.
With a week to go before the Oscars, traders at Polymarket put Jordan’s chances of winning the award at around 47%, while Chalamet comes in close behind at 45%, Leonardo DiCaprio at 5%, Wagner Moura at 4% and Ethan Hawke at just 1%. Chalamet was in the lead until Saturday.
Jordan was nominated for an Academy Award for his role as twin brothers Smoke and Stack Moore in the 2025 vampire horror film “Sinners.” Chalamet was nominated for his role in “Marty Supreme,” a fictional drama film about a table tennis player.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences awards ceremony will air on March 15, and the Best Actor Oscar prediction market has a trading volume of over $5.6 million on Polymarket as of press time.
Prediction market platforms have come to the forefront in the 2024 US elections and continue to gain momentum, with crypto exchanges also integrating prediction markets into their platforms and traditional financial companies. ogle on prediction market style products.
Related: Kalshi and Polymarket eye $20 billion valuations in potential fundraising: WSJ
Polymarket plans US app rollout this year, but regulatory hurdles remain
Polymarket opened his application for some waitlisted US users in December 2025, with full rollout of a regulated platform in the US expected later in 2026.
However, prediction market platforms continue to face increased scrutiny from some state-level regulators in the United States, who say they have the authority to regulate event-driven contracts.
In February 2026, Polymarket filed a complaint v. the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, arguing that the state-level gambling regulator has no authority over prediction markets and that such authority rests solely with the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The lawsuit could set legal precedent over whether prediction markets are regulated only at the federal level or whether oversight is shared between federal and state authorities.
Polymarket and Kalshi also face increased regulatory scrutiny in the state of Nevada after federal ruling the judge rejected the arguments that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and the CFTC prevent state regulators from exercising oversight over prediction markets.
The two platforms are reportedly exploring new fundraising rounds that could value the companies at around $20 billion each, roughly double their most recent valuations.
Each has had preliminary discussions with potential investors about raising new capital despite the high valuation, according to the Wall Street Journal. reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report notes that negotiations are still in their early stages and may not result in agreements or secure the targeted valuation.
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