JPMorgan remains optimistic about American actions even if some observers warn that the economy is starting to pay the price of President Donald Trump’s prices.
The investment bank giant provides that the S&P 500, the Wall Street’s reference index, will produce a “high performance in a figure in the next 12 months”, motivated by three key factors.
One of the main reasons for optimism is that the markets do not care about signs of economic slowdown. Instead, traders focus on the resilient benefits of companies and subsequent economic recovery.
Since President Trump fired the First Salve Price On April 2, economists lowered American growth forecasts in anterior year from 2.3% to 1.5%. However, the S&P 500 won more than 28% in the four months. The index was held stable despite the recent economic data revealing a sweetness labor market And consumptionas well as adhesiveness in the manufacturing and services sector inflation.
Although the warning of macro analysts is worrying and is probably taking place in the background, business benefits in the United States ignore the risks of slowdown, at least in the short term, making it the second catalyst of the Haussier thesis of JPMorgan.
More than 80% of S&P 500 companies recently published their profits in the second quarter, with 82% outdated Profit expectations and 79% beating income forecasts – the strongest performance since the second quarter of 2021.
Winners and losers
According to JPMorgan, while Wall Street analysts have initially projected profits less than 5%, the index is now underway for an impressive 11%growth rate. This robust watch supports the upright trend on the stock market.
“The expectations of the profits of the full year for this year and the next have already started to increase”, analysts of the heritage management of JPMorgan said Friday, in a market note, adding that the market increasingly differentiates the winners and the losers of the Trump trade war.
In addition, the market is now determined and tariff in which companies are most affected by American prices. Until now, it seems that the mega companies will go very well. This could strengthen the case for a new positive feeling in the markets.
JPMorgan analysts explained that consumer -oriented companies and the smallest having a limited negotiation power against their business partners and rigid supply chains are faced with stagnant profits.
This is linked to the latest JPMorgan catalyst: Trump’s pricing bark turns out to be worse than its bite for large companies, which manage to obtain exemptions and even transform pricing policies, aimed at triggering a boom in manufacturing, in the rear wind.
“The latest example is President Donald Trump’s suggestion that imported semiconductors are 100% imposed unless companies are committed to moving production in the United States. Another panel? Apple products are exempt from the latest pricing prices on Indian products.
Large companies benefit from an additional advantage on the part of the Big Beautiful (Obba)Under which companies can claim a 100% bonus depreciation for purchases of skilled commercial goods and the immediate costs of internal research and development costs. According to some analysts, the amortization policy could increase the cash flows available for some by more than 30%, which could encourage more investment.
The bank added that its investment strategy remains focused on high capitalization actions, especially in the technology, finance and public services sectors, which, according to her, is best placed to sail in this new economic environment.
Crypto angle
JPMorgan’s positive prospects for actions could increase for cryptocurrencies, because both tend to move in tandem. The digital asset market has a lot to do for itself, the Trump administration appointing pro-Crypto managers for keys to regulatory positions.
Recently, Securities and Exchange American Commission (SECOND) Judged that liquid development, under certain conditions, does not fall under the field of the securities law. The decision raised the hope of punctuating regulatory approval winning the ETHER ETF.
Ether rallied more than 13% to more than $ 4,200, reaching the levels observed for the last time in 2021. Prices jumped almost 50% last month, Coindesk data show.
