The odds of the United States invading Iran this year jumped to 63% on Sunday on prediction platform Polymarket, following comments by US President Donald Trump on social media.
Despite the sharp increase, the odds of an invasion before 2027 are still down from a high of 68% on March 29, due to the buildup of U.S. troops in the region and comments from the Trump administration that the U.S. was considering capturing Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil station.
The volume of this forecast was around $3.74 million at the time of publication.
On Tuesday, after Trump reported that the The United States could leave Iran in the next two to three weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped around 2.6% and the S&P 500 Index at added about 2.91%. However, Trump changed course with his latest statement on Sunday. He wrote:
“Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day, all rolled into one, in Iran. There will be no such thing! Open the fucking strait, you crazy bastards, or you will live in hell.”
At last glance, BTC was little changed, trading less than 0.1% higher over the past 24 hours, remaining anchored around the $67,500 level, according to data from TradingView.
THE mixed signals from the Trump administration The war and its duration continue to create uncertainty for investors and impact all risk asset prices, as market analysts, traders and economists attempt to predict the effects of the war.
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“I would like Trump to stop threatening Iran’s civilian infrastructure. It’s a lose-lose situation for us: backing down harms his credibility in the negotiations,” said economist Peter Schiff. said in response to Trump’s comments.
“Carrying it out intensifies the war, damages the reputation of the United States, generates sympathy for Iran, and fuels Iranian hatred of America,” Schiff continued.
“I thought it was fake, it’s not,” said podcaster and Bitcoin advocate Peter McCormack. said.
Brent crude oil, the most widely used price benchmark in the international spot oil market, remains elevated, closing above $109 a barrel on Thursday. Trading is expected to resume on Monday after the Easter bank holiday weekend.
