Bitcoin (BTC) entered the new month with a statistical headwind that it never overcame: every time November ended in the red, BTC struggled to turn bullish in December. Yet this year’s structure looks noticeably different, with momentum, liquidity rotation, and cycle gaps countering what has been a 100% bearish seasonal pattern.
Key points to remember:
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Bitcoin’s December bearish period could change with reduced leverage and the price returning to a key technical level, hinting at a more stable pattern.
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Macroeconomic liquidity and M2 velocity deviate from Bitcoin buying activity, which is typically seen in the midst of a bull market.
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The structure of the Bitcoin cycle has evolved, with spot ETF inflows and global liquidity dynamics changing traditional halving-based cycles.
Seasonality Breakers and Cycle Gap Cases for BTC
Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter returns have long reflected strong seasonality, with weak performance in December generally following a negative November. Still, the market structure has deviated somewhat from previous cycles in 2025.
BTC price has returned above its monthly volume-weighted average price (rVWAP) levels, signaling controlled distribution and long-term trend adoption. A significant drop in open interest, from $94 billion to $60 billion, normalized or reset the market without killing spot inflows, creating a cleaner basis for continuation.
From a technical perspective, deep liquidity clusters have migrated since November’s downside selloff, totaling about $1 billion, or nearly $80,000, toward inefficient upside clusters. Currently, $3 billion in cumulative short positions would be liquidated at $96,000 and over $7 billion once BTC hits $100,000.
Thus, these factors suggest that the December price may be misjudged relative to its historical probability curve of Bitcoin performance.
Yet the current dynamic can be misleading. Cointelegraph note that the takers’ buy/sell ratio near 1.17 showed urgency, not depth, and often appeared when positioning was crowded. Anonymous Market Analyst EndGame Macro said that this reflected aggressive buying but not necessarily sustained accumulation.
At the same time, M2 velocity has flattened, signaling that the broader economic engine may lose momentum even as risk assets continue to grow. This creates a pattern typical of late stages of the market cycle, where markets become noisier while the underlying economy becomes quieter.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s attempt to establish its first-ever green December after a negative November becomes a test of whether positioning can dominate broader market fundamentals.
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A change beyond the traditional half clock
Over the past few months, analysts have argued that a four-year cycle for Bitcoin does not fully explain BTC’s current market structure. Michaël van de Poppe, crypto analyst note that the four-year cycle has not disappeared, but that it no longer clearly corresponds to temporal expectations.
Spot BTC ETF inflows introduced consistent, structural supply, accelerating price discovery and raising Bitcoin’s effective floor compared to previous cycles.
Van de Poppe argued that this cycle resembles a prolonged liquidity phase, similar to that of mid-2016 or late 2019, when risk assets strengthened despite patchy macroeconomic data.
Support indicators, such as the CNY/USD correlation with ETH/BTC, typically increase at the start of expansionary windows, not near market cycle highs.
Meanwhile, business cycle signals, such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), are slowly improving alongside gold’s relative strength, suggesting that risk appetite is recovering from cyclical lows rather than weakening. Van de Popped added:
“Now, if we combine the strength/weakness of the business cycle with the Bitcoin cycles, again the correlation is quite clear. This stage is comparable to Q1/2 2016 and Q4 2019. We are far from the peak on Bitcoin, and we are still in the last easy crypto cycle with sky-high returns.”
In this context, Bitcoin’s pattern in December depends less on repeating historical seasonality and more on whether new structural forces, such as spot ETF inflows, liquidity turnover, and evolving macroeconomic correlations, outweigh old halving cycles.
Related: Bitcoin Is Looking More Like It Was in 2022: Can BTC Price Avoid $68,000?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision. Although we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on such information.
