Bitcoin price remained below $72,000 as consolidation looms: new research.

New data from Glassnode points to Bitcoin (BTC) could experience another “prolonged phase of range-bound price action” if key support levels are not reclaimed.

Key points to remember:

• Bitcoin is stuck between key cost base levels, predicting a 2022-style consolidation unless key support levels are reclaimed.

• Bitcoin price must clear resistance at $72,000 to exit consolidation.

Bitcoin Faces Overhead Supply Issues

In the February 11 edition of its regular newsletter, The week in chainOn-chain data provider Glassnode confirmed that key supply zones were limiting upside tracking and “creating the potential for overhead resistance during relief rallies.”

The BTC/USD pair is trading in a new range defined by the actual market average currently at $79,200 and the realized price near $55,000, closely resembling the structural environment seen during the first half of 2022.

According to Glassnode, the price of Bitcoin is should continue to oscillate in this corridor until new buyers emerge and gradually accumulate supply.

The chart below shows that the price from April to June 2022 got stuck between the true market average and the realized price before entering a prolonged bear market, bottoming out around $15,000 in November 2022.

Related: Bankers push OCC to slow down crypto trust charters until GENIUS rules are clarified

A breakout of this range would require an extreme catalyst, “either a decisive recovery of the true market average near $79.2k, signaling renewed structural strength, or a systemic dislocation similar to LUNA or FTX that forces the price below the realized price around $55k,” Glassnode said, adding:

“In the absence of such extremes, a prolonged phase of range-limited absorption remains the most likely path for the market in the medium term.”

Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), a metric that shows at what prices the current set of Bitcoin UTXOs were created, also revealed large and dense supply zones above $82,000 that gradually became cohorts of long-term holders.

“Overhead supply remains structurally heavy, with significant clusters positioned between $82,000 and $97,000 and between $100,000 and $117,000, representing cohorts that are now experiencing substantial unrealized losses,” the on-chain data analytics platform said, adding:

“These areas can act as a latent overhang on the sellers’ side, particularly if a prolonged period underwater or further downside volatility triggers further capitulation.”

Bitcoin “whales close long positions and open short positions versus retail,” Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal said in a recent X post, adding:

“There is a high probability that Bitcoin will enter a phase of consolidation, structuring and construction over the next 30 days.”

Bitcoin price stuck between two key levels

The 20% recovery of Bitcoin Since 15-month low below $60,000 was rejected by the resistance of the $72,000 level.

It is now consolidating within the recently established support below $65,000 and resistance at $68,000, which analyst Daan Crypto Trades said bulls must “exceed to attack $72,000 again.”

CoinGlass’ liquidation heatmap shows Bitcoin in a classic liquidation sandwich with heavy ask orders between $69,000 and $72,000 and dense offer positions below $66,000, as shown in the figure below. This highlights the relative rigidity of the current market structure.

As Cointelegraph reportedBitcoin needs to clear resistance at $72,000 to revive hopes of a recovery towards the 20-day exponential moving average at $76,000 and the 50-day simple moving average above $85,000, suggesting that BTC price may have bottomed in the near term.