In the latest interview with Cointelegraph, macro investor and former hedge fund manager James Lavish issued a stark warning to Bitcoin holders and global investors: Markets may be anticipating a quick resolution to the Iran conflict – but if this assumption turns out to be wrong, the consequences could be severe.
Lavish argued that if the conflict drags on and maintains pressure on oil prices, the result could be a new inflationary shock, new fears of stagflation and a major price revision in global markets.
This scenario, he said, would put the Federal Reserve in an impossible position: unable to raise rates aggressively without risking a recession, but unable to cut them due to persistent inflation.
This is where the conversation becomes particularly relevant to Bitcoin (BTC). Lavish explains why Bitcoin has behaved differently from gold and stocks over the past few months, and why this relative resilience might not last in a true “correlation to one” panic event.
If markets suffer a larger decline, he says, Bitcoin could fall another 10 to 20 percent, potentially returning to the low $50,000 range, or even high $40,000.
And yet, Lavish is far from being bearish in the long term.
One of the most compelling parts of the interview is his argument that such a sell-off would not destroy the Bitcoin thesis – it could actually create a major opportunity. It also explains why investors should avoid being overly leveraged or completely underexposed in a market driven by war headlines, bond stress and rapidly changing expectations about Fed policy.
The interview also discusses safe haven investments, energy markets, Treasury yields and money printing.
If you want to understand what an experienced macro investor thinks about war risk, recession risk, and Bitcoin’s next move, watch the full interview on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!
This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.
