Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed after CME futures speculators turned significantly bullish in April 2025. A similar positioning shift resurfaces in 2026, increasing the chances of a BTC price recovery in the coming weeks.
Key takeaways:
BTC Futures and Technical Data Suggest $85,000 Price Target
Non-commercial Bitcoin futures traders reduced their net position to around -1,600 contracts, from around +1,000 a month earlier, according to the CFTC Trader Commitment (COT) report published last week.
In practice, this means that large speculators, notably hedge funds and similar financial institutions, moved from short to long positions, with bulls outnumbering bears on the CME.
The rapid unwinding of net sales implies that “smart money” added Longs “with a certain urgency”, said analyst Tom McClellan, while pointing out two similar past fluctuations that preceded Bitcoin price lows.
For example, the price of BTC gained approximately 70% after a sharp decline in CME Bitcoin futures net shorts in April 2025. In 2023, the price of BTC increased by more than 190% under similar futures market conditions.
Since February, the smart money move has manifested itself again, just as Bitcoin is defending its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA, the blue line), which has served as a bear market floor during most of the major pullbacks over the past decade.
On Sunday, BTC’s 200-week EMA was hovering around $68,350.
The last time Bitcoin traded around this moving average during sell-offs (in 2015, 2018, and 2020), it finally marked the end of the downtrend and the start of a new recovery phase.
Related: Historical Bitcoin Price Measure Shows 10-Month “Average Return” of $122,000
The Bitcoin Weekly relative strength index (RSI) remains in oversold territory, a sign that the selling pressure is almost exhausted.
This further increases the chances of Bitcoin recovery in the coming weeks. A decisive rebound from the 200-week EMA could trigger a rise towards the 100-week EMA (the purple wave) at around $85,000 by April.
Bitcoin bulls are not out of the woods yet
McClellan warned that smart money transfer is “a condition, not a signal,” meaning Bitcoin could still slide from its current price levels before a sustainable low forms.
This could trigger the 2022 scenario, in which BTC plunged more than 40% after falling below its 200-week EMA despite similar oversold conditions.
A repeat of this 40% drop in 2026 could see BTC prices drop as much as $40,000, or 60% from its all-time high of around $126,270.
Some analysts, including the dockalso see BTC potentially hitting a low of around $40,000-$50,000 based on its “four-year cycle” frame.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision. Although we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on such information.
