Bitcoin buy flash signs but short -term risk remains

The main dishes to remember:

• Stablecoin’s entry patterns reflect the levels observed after the collapse of Luna and FTX. Point towards a new accumulation and the potential of a rally in small groups.

• Bitcoin has more than $ 100,000, but a new user activity is still low, indicating a “Hodl” phase where holders are waiting for fresh demand to increase prices.

Bitcoin (BTC) flashes the first signs of a strong rally, but the price table does not draw attention. Onchain’s data shows a “demand generation” scheme similar to the accumulation phases observed after the Terra / Luna and FTX collapse, and the two marked the stockings of the major cycle.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said The fact that the mobile average at 30 days of stablecoin entries plunged into a negative territory, forming the same “blue zones” previously observed in 2022. This suggests that participants are not ready to sell, signaling a return of a significant demand in the middle of the suppressed volatility. Adler said,

“If entries remain or exceed the levels observed post-Luna and FTX, this would strongly signal the launch of the next Bitcoin rally.”

Bitcoin Network Activity Hodl Dominance Signals

The price of the BTC is solid greater than $ 100,000, but the new SMA UTXO 30 days, a proxy for a new network activity, remains close to 570,000. This represents an activity approximately 40% lower than that when BTC was negotiated between $ 60,000 and $ 70,000 and far from the 850,000 and 1 million people for 2024 Bull Run.

This divergence suggests that long -term holders lock the coins, do not move them, creating a supply compression scenario where the price could quickly increase if a new request starts. An exceeding of 700,000 on the new Utxo The metric would point out that new participants enter. If it climbs beyond 850,000, it could confirm the beginning of a detail and institutional bull phase in its own right.

The Flow Multiple exchange supports this configuration, according to the short -term BTC inputs in the long term, which fell into an area which historically marks a phase of exhaustion of the seller where the reduction in the liquidity of the sale will sparkle the time of the upward price.

Meanwhile, whales seem to mobilize. Significant transactions now represent 96% of all exchange flows, a level historically associated with the main price extensions. These entities can position strategic redistribution parts, often timed with price peaks.

Related: Save the Q2, following monthly fence? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The risk of BTC in the imbalance of demand persists

Despite these bullish structural signals, short -term risks remain. THE Apparent request Metric for 30 days has returned negative for the first time in two months, indicating that the demand for new buyers is not strong enough to absorb the sales pressure of minors and certain long -term holders (LTH). This imbalance increases the risk of a short -term price correction.

In this mixed environment characterized by rascals, the depletion of the seller and the activity of early whales, the next Bitcoin movement depends on the question of whether the fresh demand can exceed residual sale. A short -term correction could precede the wider rise trend if the momentum stabilizes near the levels of keys to $ 110,000.

Related: the new top of all Bitcoin time now “inevitable” as BTC Price Eyes Liquidity at $ 109,000

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.