Bitcoin Could Surge 56% as Markets Understand Saylor’s New BTC Strategy, Analyst Says

Why Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy Created Market Uncertainty

Strategy Inc.’s change in its bitcoin This approach has raised questions about the next phase of the business. Instead of expanding bitcoin reserves through the issuance of debt and equity securities, the company is repositioning its holdings as collateral for financial products, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, explained on July 10.

The change focuses on Strategy Inc.’s STRC preferred stock, a credit product backed by bitcoin assets. MSTR’s market value roughly matches that of bitcoin holdings, meaning its mNAV is close to 1.0, the company has less ability to issue stock at a premium to fund additional purchases. This led investors to wonder whether it would be necessary to sell BTCcontributing to recent price weakness.

“The change in communication is delicate and has caused difficulties bitcoin price,” he said, adding:

“Once we all understand what Saylor is trying to do, the pain will go away. And when that happens bitcoin at $64,000 is a screaming buy (targeting $100,000 by the end of the year), which also means MSTR at $94 is as well, as its mNAV is currently around 1.0.

Kendrick says markets are reacting to the uncertainty surrounding Saylor’s strategy. According to him, Strategy Inc. is not giving up bitcoin ownership, but changing how those assets are used.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $64,322.89 and Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) stock closed Friday at $94.64.

The question of Bitcoin guarantee at the heart of the market debate

The key question is whether investors understand that Strategy Inc’s strategy. bitcoin assets are repositioned as collateral rather than viewed as assets that may need to be sold. Kendrick said the company needed to show it could sell bitcoin if necessary, but believes that proving this ability could reduce the need to do so.

“To convince investors bitcoin This is the guarantee Saylor needs to convince us he can sell bitcoin if necessary (as it did recently),” he noted. “However, once investors understand this, this is the new focus of bitcoinMSTR will no longer need to sell because the change in communication will have gained credibility (it’s a bit like when central banks say they will do whatever it takes and because of their credibility they end up doing nothing).”

Analysis suggests confidence in collateral structure could reduce pressure on Strategy Inc. to sell bitcoin. STRC has an outstanding notional value of approximately $10 billion, and Kendrick claims bitcoin the backing makes the preferred shares heavily overcollateralized. Stronger sentiment could help STRC move back toward $100 from around $90.

“We believe this signal will ultimately be effective, limiting the need for future MSTR sales of BTC” he said, arguing that recent concerns about the MSTR represent a short-term market reaction rather than a signal of a major change. bitcoin change in trend. He further wrote:

As such, we view this primarily as noise rather than a signal of BTCthe medium-term direction of the company. We therefore maintain our forecast for the end of 2026 of USD- BTC 100,000 for bitcoin.”

Markets await proof that new model can work

Strategy Inc.’s next phase depends on whether investors accept its new financial structure. MSTR’s previous valuation was linked to bitcoin accumulation, while the current model uses assets to support credit products.

Kendrick believes that clearer communication about bitcoinThe role of can restore trust. If investors accept bitcoin as a guarantee of the STRC rather than as a source of large-scale sales, the pressure on bitcoin and MSTR could ease.

The debate now focuses on whether markets will recognize the objective of Strategy Inc’s program. bitcoin assets. Market prices, STRC performance, and future company actions will determine whether recent volatility was temporary or signals a lasting change in the role of the MSTR. Standard Chartered maintains its $100,000 bitcoin expected by the end of 2026, implying an increase of approximately 56% from current levels.