Bitcoin could be entering the final stages of the bear market, with bearish momentum starting to slow, according to Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.
“I think we’ve gotten through most of the bear market action. It’s definitely not over yet. But you know, I think we’re at least approaching the second half,” Coutts said at a news conference. interview on Cointelegraph trade secrets.
Coutts described Bitcoin’s current price action as a “typical bear market,” with BTC trading around the $63,000 mark, about 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100.
He noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased by around 50% compared to the previous market cycle, suggesting that the current downturn may be less severe than previous bear markets.
Bitcoin is up 4.45% over the past 30 days. (CoinMarketCap)
However, Coutts cautioned that markets rarely follow historical patterns so precisely. “They’re kind of doing their own thing. And right now, all the trend indicators are obviously bearish,” Coutts said.
On the positive side, Coutts said he is starting to see early technical signs that selling pressure is easing.
“I’m starting to see bullish divergence appear on the longer momentum periods. That just tells me that the acceleration, or should I say, the negative momentum is decelerating, but that doesn’t mean at all that we’re out of this bear market from a technical standpoint,” Coutts said.
While many market participants blamed Bitcoin’s Q4 slowdown on tightening global liquidity conditions, Coutts said weakening on-chain fundamentals also played a significant role.
“So on-chain demand, which definitely drives prices and is somewhat correlated to things like global liquidity and the business cycle, has also started to deteriorate.”
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Jamie Coutts is skeptical that Bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2030
Coutts was cautious when asked whether he agreed with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood’s long-term predictions that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030.
“The models I was working with had about a million by 2032, 2033. It just depends on how much money needs to be printed between now and then,” he said.
“I’m more comfortable with a prediction in the next two to three years that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 to $250,000,” he said. Outside of that time frame, he added, it’s “very difficult to say.”
“I think it’ll be interesting to know what AI brings to the equation, as you know, we’re seeing more and more wallets created for agents, and what are they essentially going to store their value in? Are they going to make the same decisions as humans?” he said.
Regarding long-term risks to Bitcoin’s valuation, Coutts said the community will need to take more decisive action by 2027 to address the potential threat posed by quantum computing.
“If there isn’t really any firm movement on this, it will become an increasingly talked about issue for the network, because even though everything is threatened by quantum, Bitcoin is a decentralized network. It will take five years for it to implement a major protocol upgrade.”
Coutts said Bitcoin developers who dismiss concerns about quantum computing’s potential threat to the network are on the “wrong side.”
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