Investing.com – retested recent lows near $60,000 before recording a modest rebound to around $63,000, with the cryptocurrency falling around 54% from its cycle high of around $125,000 hit in November 2025.
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said this decline was significantly shallower than previous cycles, which saw corrections of 75% to 90%. “While it is unclear whether we are completely out of the woods…this cryptocurrency bear market has been milder than the previous pullback,” the analysts wrote.
Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs will bring in $10 billion in 2026, up from $60 billion last year. Bitcoin ETFs alone have lost $5.5 billion this year against an asset base of $74 billion, with purchases from corporate treasury holders, primarily, offsetting the outflows.
The strategy itself has weathered the volatility of its STRC preferred shares, which now trade at $87.87 against a par value of $100. The company maintains 17 months of cash reserves to cover its dividend and interest obligations, with debt representing only 13% of the value of its Bitcoin collateral.
“It seems unlikely that a major forced supply of Bitcoin could come from Strategy and it continues to be a net buyer in the market,” the analysts said.
Meanwhile, U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners have become net sellers as they pivot to AI data center operations, ceding hash rate share to international miners in Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Latin America. The share of US miners in the global hash rate has fallen by more than 40 basis points over the past two quarters.
On the regulatory front, Bernstein highlighted continued rulemaking under the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and the rollout of crypto perpetual futures on U.S. platforms including Kalshi and Coinbase, with passage of the CLARITY Act still seen as a draw this year.
In summary, “any cryptographic correction is painful, but this one has been rather comforting,” say the analysts. “Crypto feels like it’s growing.”
Bernstein remains bullish on the long term, but acknowledged that his year-end Bitcoin price target of $150,000 “seems ambitious in the context of the market correction,” while expecting the broader cycle to eventually turn around.
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