Key points to remember:
- Top traders increased their Bitcoin long/short ratios, strengthening the $76,000 support floor.
- Macroeconomic pressures and persistent Bitcoin ETF outflows cap Bitcoin’s immediate breakout potential at $82,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with $78,000 on Thursday but failed to maintain its bullish momentum after a disappointing outlook from US retailer Walmart and growing signs of tighter US monetary policy. Despite weakening macroeconomic conditions, professional Bitcoin traders have increased their bullish exposure. Is a Rally to $82,000 Next?
Long to short Bitcoin position from top traders at Binance & OKX. Source: CoinGlass
Top traders’ long/short ratio hit a 2-week high, indicating growing confidence in the $76,000 support level. At Binance, the ratio remained near 8% in favor of long (buy) positions for three days, while OKX traders reduced their short (sell) positions between Wednesday and Thursday. However, in absolute terms, the long-to-short indicator remains neutral.
Worsening economy and high oil prices spark fears of a U.S. rate hike
Part of this lack of confidence can be attributed to the deterioration of the outlook for economic growth. Walmart (WMT US) saw its shares fall 7% after issuing weak 2027 forecasts due to persistent oil prices. John Furner, Walmart CFO said low-income consumers are “going through financial hardship.” The company serves as a proxy for U.S. retail data due to its massive quarterly sales of $178 billion.
The prolonged war in Iran and the subsequent partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz have kept Brent crude oil prices above $95 over the past month. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has less room to maneuver due to these upward inflationary pressures. Traders now anticipate interest rate increasesmarking a complete turnaround from expectations from the previous month.
FOMC interest rate target probabilities for September 2026. Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool
Implied odds of an interest rate hike by September, based on government bond futures markets, jumped to 37% from 0% a month earlier. So, regardless of the strength of the S&P 500, investors expect accelerated growth in the monetary base, with rising interest rates negatively affecting the $39 trillion. US government debt.
Bitcoin/USD on Coinbase versus Bitcoin/USDT on major exchanges. Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase trades at a 0.10% discount to Bitcoin prices on major exchanges listed in USDT. This negative Coinbase Bitcoin premium is generally associated with weak institutional demand, which corresponds to net outflows of $2.07 billion from U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since May 12.
Related: Chances of new Bitcoins ‘extremely slim’ as long-term holder supply exceeds 15 million BTC
Annualized funding rate of Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts. Source: Lightness
The Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate has remained neutral since Monday, reversing the trend from the previous week. The current rate of 7% is far from bullish, but it marks a complete turnaround from May 14, when short sellers paid 13% to keep their positions open.
Given the uncertain outlook for global economies, the chances of a sustained Bitcoin rally to $82,000 in the near term appear low. Nonetheless, reduction in short positions of top traders and a balanced perpetual forward funding rate indicate that bulls are gradually building confidence in the $76,000 support level.
