Current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “considerably” weaker than the previous three cycles, according to Alex Thorn, head of market-wide research at investment firm Galaxy.
Thorn compared price developments since Bitcoin Halving in April 2024 to the cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly muted volatility and lower upside potential. THE an all-time high above $125,000 on October 5, 2025, it was only 97% higher than the price halved in 2024, around $63,000.
The price of BTC rose approximately 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of approximately $1,163, and soared approximately 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of approximately $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of around 761%.
“Cycle four is significantly underperforming previous cycles,” Thorn said in an X post, asking: “Is this the new normal, or is this the new normal until it’s not?”
The decreasing volatility during each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and the BTC price may begin to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or halving. the four-year cycle market theory.
The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which reached 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not exceeded 3.11% during the current cycle, a reading last published on August 24, 2024. At last glance, the latest 30-day estimate for this volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo. data.
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Critics say the current cycle’s performance ignores the premature all-time high ahead of the 2024 halving.
BTC reached what was then the highest historical above the $70,000 level in March 2024 – one month before the April 2024 halving.
THE approval of bitcoin spot exchange traded funds (ETF) in the United States in January 2024 was the main catalyst for the price increase.
This historical anomaly of BTC hitting a new all-time high before the halving has distorted the current cycle’s price performance, critical of Thorn’s analysis. said.
Bitcoin withdrawals have also become less seriousas volatility has decreased, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.
Previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines of between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, research analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets.
However, Bitcoin collapses to $60,000 from the all-time high above $125,000, that represents a drop just north of 50%, Fidelity’s analysis noted.
In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that BTC was close to the low point and that he expects the price to start gradually increasing again in 2026.
At last look, the largest crypto was trading at around $74,703, up almost 5% over the past seven days, according to TradingView data.
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