Bitcoin may no longer move in sync with Federal Reserve policy, according to a new report from Binance Searchreflecting a structural change driven by cash exchange-traded funds.
For years, crypto markets reacted strongly to interest rate signals, with bitcoin falling when central banks tightened monetary policy.
This trend now appears to be breaking as data from Binance shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, has become significantly negative since 2024. Bitcoin spot ETFs were approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2024. January 2024.
Before ETFs, the relationship was slightly positive, with BTC tending to follow global multi-month easing cycles. Now the report finds that the opposite effect is nearly three times stronger, suggesting that the old link has reversed.
This change reflects a change in price determination. Retail investors once dominated crypto trading and reacted to macro news. ETFs have allowed institutions to play a larger role, and these firms have often positioned themselves months before policy changes, treating BTC as a forward-looking asset.
“As a result, BTC may have moved from a lagging macro receiver to a leading price,” Binance Research wrote. “A spike in easing may already be old news for BTC, and crypto-native drivers, such as political progress and institutional flows, may matter more than the direction of monetary easing itself.”
These results come as markets grapple with renewed fears of stagflation linked to rising oil prices and growing geopolitical tensions linked to the war in the Middle East.
Rate expectations have shifted from projected cuts to possible hikes, a backdrop that has historically put pressure on risky assets.
Binance says the reaction may be overblown. In past cycles, central banks have often reacted to support growth despite spikes in inflation. If history repeats itself, central banks will eventually prioritize growth over inflation, and Bitcoin will likely enter this pivot sooner than expected.
