VanEck’s Matthew Sigel sees $100,000 worth of Bitcoin within a year, even as volatility fueled by the Iran conflict, war risks and macroeconomic uncertainty leave room for another 20% drawdown.
Summary
- VanEck’s Matthew Sigel says Bitcoin at $100,000 in a year is “totally reasonable,” even after the volatility caused by the war.
- Macro investor James Lavish warns that Bitcoin could fall by up to 20% if the conflict with Iran escalates further.
- Geopolitical tension has already erased roughly 20% of Bitcoin’s value since late February, challenging its safe haven narrative.
Bitcoin (btc) can “completely reasonably” trade back to $100,000 within a year, according to VanEck head of digital assets Matthew Sigel, who maintains that the leading cryptocurrency remains a “100% viable asset” despite sharp declines and war-driven volatility. His comments, made on CNBC’s Power Lunch and amplified on X, come as Bitcoin trades around $60,000 after a sharp correction from an October high near $126,000. Since the conflict with Iran escalated in late February, around 20% has already been shaved off Bitcoin’s market value, exposing the fragility of its supposed crisis-hedge status.
In the viral clip shared by CNBC’s Power Lunch account on That view extends earlier research by VanEck, where Sigel set a base Bitcoin target of $180,000 for this cycle, arguing that institutional inflows, pro-cryptocurrency US policy under President Donald Trump and repeated all-time highs would define the post-election landscape. Recently, Bitcoin was priced around $68,510, about $16,600 below where it was trading a year ago and almost 50% below its October all-time high near $126,000.
VanEck’s bullish call comes against a darker macroeconomic backdrop highlighted by macro investor James Lavish in a separate interview shared by Cointelegraph. Lavish warns that if tensions increase over the conflict with Iran, bitcoin “could fall as much as 20%,” a move that would push the price back toward $50,000 and further undermine the digital gold narrative. The data already shows how sensitive the asset has become to Middle East headlines: Bitcoin plunged to around $63,255 in late February in the initial US and Israeli attacks on Iran before recovering above $68,000 on shifting war reports.
Market research cited by outlets such as Seeking Alpha notes that the broader recession linked to the Iran conflict has erased roughly 20% of Bitcoin’s value since hostilities escalated, while some analysts warn that a drop toward $50,000 remains possible before any lasting recovery. At the same time, Glassnode data highlighted by Yahoo Finance shows “tentative signs of improvement,” with Bitcoin recently up around 4.3% on the day around $69,100 as traders begin to take risk again in hopes of a de-escalation.
The split between Sigel’s $100,000 roadmap and Lavish’s 20% downside warning captures Bitcoin’s current identity crisis: It is being traded as a geopolitically sensitive risk asset, not a pure safe haven, even as long-term bulls continue to frame it as protection against currency debasement. In a previous comment covered by Forbes, BitMEX Co-founder Arthur Hayes argued that prolonged conflict and renewed money printing could ultimately drive Bitcoin towards $500,000, underscoring how war and macro policy, not just halving cycles, now anchor more aggressive price targets.
For now, spot prices remain well below the $100,000 threshold outlined by Sigel and the $180,000 base case VanEck has laid out for this cycle, but also well above the $52,000 lows seen earlier in the Iran crisis. Whether Bitcoin spends the next year reaching six-figure territory again or retesting the $50,000 zone may depend less on crypto-native narratives and more on how the Iran war, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy evolve from here.
