The annual Bitcoin (BTC) price candle is expected to close in the red, ending 2025 lower than at the start of the year, unless BTC can rise 6.24% above the yearly open of around $93,374.
“3 days for Bitcoin to recover and close the year. Otherwise, it will be the first year after the halving that we close in the red. 6.24% is needed to make it a green candle”, Puckrin said.
Bitcoin has reached a an all-time high above $125,000 in October, a few days before historic stock market crash put a damper on Bitcoin’s rally and sent crypto prices down across the board.
The price of BTC has fallen approximately 30% since its all-time high and has formed a local fund around $80,000 in November, prompting analysts to debate whether Bitcoin’s bull rally is over and whether a a new bear market has begun.
Market analysts disagree on whether a recovery will materialize or whether the decline will extend into 2026, often focusing on the macroeconomic factors and liquidity conditions that determine the price of Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin price, onchain flow and global macro: here’s what changed in 2025
All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve and continued rate cuts.
Bitcoin has been trading well below its 365-day moving average, a critical support level, since November, breaking the structural uptrend that began in 2023.
Lower interest rates are positive price catalysts for risky assetsincluding cryptocurrencies, which tend to recover with new liquidity injections.
The Federal Reserve issued three 25 basis point interest rate cuts (BPS) in 2025; However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell issued mixed forward guidance at the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
“There is no risk-free policy path,” Powell said, casting doubt on a further interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in January.
Only 18.8% of investors expect interest rates to fall in January, according to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group’s FedWatch. tool.
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