Bitcoin (BTC) demand growth has slowed significantly since October 2025, signaling that Bitcoin has entered another bear market cycle, according to analysts at crypto market analysis platform CryptoQuant.
Investor demand for BTC has split into three waves during the current market cycle, with the first wave landing in January 2024, according to CryptoQuant analysts. said.
The first wave followed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds launch (ETF) in the United States, the second wave followed the 2024 US presidential election resultsand the third was a BTC cash company bubble. According to CryptoQuant:
“Demand growth has fallen below trend since early October 2025. This indicates that most of this cycle’s incremental demand has already been realized, removing a key pillar of price support.”
Institutional demand has also contracted, the total amount of Bitcoin held in ETFs down by around 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, a “stark contrast” to the accumulation behavior seen in Q4 2024, CryptoQuant said.
Funding rates, the fees paid by perpetual futures traders to maintain their positions, also fell to their lowest levels since December 2023, another signal that BTC has entered a bear market.
The final reason given by analysts for the bearish outlook was the breakdown in Bitcoin’s price structure. below the 365-day moving averagewhich constitutes a critical and dynamic level of support for any asset.
Related: Bitcoin rallies thwarted by dwindling chances of Fed rate cut, softening US macro
While some analysts remain hopeful for a better 2026, fear grips the market
Some analysts continue to forecast higher BTC prices in 2026, driven by increased demand and lower interest rates. The fall in interest rates is positive catalysts for crypto prices and other risky assets.
However, overall crypto market sentiment remains firmly in “fear” territory, according to CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed. Hint.
Only 22.1% of investors expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut interest rates at its next meeting in January, according to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group’s FedWatch. tool.
US President Donald Trump tried to pressure Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates in 2025 by threatening to fire Powell.
Powell’s term is set to expire in May 2026 and Trump is examine potential replacements who are expected to lower rates.
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