Key points to remember:
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XRP validates a bearish descending triangle, risking a 25% decline to $1.55.
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Bearish divergence from the weekly RSI indicates increasing bearish momentum.
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Low daily active addresses signal muted network activity and liquidity, amplifying the risk of XRP selling.
XRP price has been trading 11% below its value a week ago, and a convergence of several data points signals a deeper correction towards $1.55.
XRP Descending Triangle Hints at 45% Price Drop
XRP (XRP) price chart has confirmed a descending triangle pattern on its eight-hour chart since fall below $3 psychological level in October.
A descending triangle chart template — characterized by a flat support level and a descending resistance line — resolves when price breaks below the flat support level and falls to the maximum height of the triangle.
Related: XRP “structurally fragile” with 41.5% of supply at a loss
The XRP/USD pair confirmed the descending triangle when it fell below the pattern support line at $2.20 on Monday.
The bulls are fighting to keep XRP above the $2 support. A breakout of this level will likely see XRP price fall towards the triangle’s measured target at $1.55 by the end of November, representing a 25% decline from current price levels.
XRP’s descending triangle breakdown echoes previous analysis that warned of a possible decline to $1.61 if key support levels do not hold.
The Glassnode Distribution Heatmap watch that a large supply cluster lies between $2.38 and $2.40 (encompassed by the 100-day SMA and triangle resistance line), where nearly 3.23 billion XRP has been acquired. This marks an area of strong resistance for XRP, adding to the tailwinds.
XRP Bearish Divergence
XRP’s decline is supported by a bearish divergence between its price and the relative strength index (RSI).
The weekly chart below shows that the XRP/USD pair increased between November 2024 and July 2025, forming higher highs within an ascending channel. However, during the same period, its weekly RSI fell from 92 to 68, forming lower highs as illustrated in the weekly chart below.
A divergence between rising price and falling RSI usually indicates weakness in the current uptrend, prompting traders to sell more at local highs. profit taking intensifies and buyer exhaustion sets in.
The RSI has since fallen to 39, suggesting that market conditions are still favorable to the downside.
The chart above also reveals that XRP is facing strong resistance from the 50-week SMA at $2.32. Overhead pressure at this level could continue to push the price of XRP lower over the coming weeks.
Decrease in XRP Ledger network activity
Network activity on the XRP Ledger has been silent for the past four months. Glassnode on-chain data revealed that the daily active addresses (DAA) on the network are now well below the peak of 577,000 DAA, recorded on June 14.
With only around 44,000 DAA at the time of writing, user transactions have declined significantly, which could indicate reduced interest or lack of confidence in XRP’s near-term prospects.
New addresses have also abandoned at 4,000 per day currently, down from 13,500 on November 10, suggesting a decline in network adoption and user engagement.
Historically, drops in network activity typically signal upcoming price stagnation or declines, as lower trading volume reduces liquidity and buying momentum.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.
