Bitcoins (BTCThe Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, one of the most widely cited BTC valuation frameworks, forecasts a peak price of $222,000 during this market cycle, but investors should exercise caution when using this model, according to André Dragosch, European head of research at investment firm Bitwise.
The Stock-to-Flow model does not take into account demand factors and instead focuses its price modeling on Bitcoin halvings, which halve the amount of newly issued BTC every four years, Dragosch said. He added:
“Today, institutional demand through Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) and Treasury holdings exceeds the annualized supply reduction from the last halving by more than seven times.”
Exchange-traded funds, ETPs, and other Bitcoin investment vehicles have created a floor price for BTCsupporting prices above the $100,000 level.
Crypto Investors and analysts continue to debate the price of Bitcoin during the current market cycle and whether BTC has reached its peak or still has room to run, as the market structure matures due to the presence of institutional investors.
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Analysts debate how high BTC can reach in this market cycle
Bitcoin can still reach $200,000 by the end of 2025according to Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, a pro-crypto bank.
The October flash crash that sent BTC below $104,000 could present a buying opportunity for investors, which could drive BTC to new highs.
Other analysts predict a BTC price up to $500,000 in 2026, driven by an explosion in the M2 money supply, a measure that tracks the total amount of U.S. dollars existing in the world.
Higher M2 is seen as a bullish catalyst for BTC as liquidity from increased money supply flows into assets, driving prices higher.
However, crypto industry executives like Tom Lee, CEO of investment research firm FundStrat, and Mike Novogratz, CEO of crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital, disagree.
Novogratz said $250,000 by the end of 2025 would be it is unlikely to come to fruition unless “crazy stuff” happens, as Tom Lee warned that a A 50% BTC Drawdown May Still Happen despite institutional adoption.
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